AccScience Publishing / EER / Online First / DOI: 10.36922/EER026220023
Cite this article
3
Download
20
Views
Related Info Links
More by Authors Links
Journal Browser
Volume | Year
Issue
Search
News and Announcements
View All
REVIEW ARTICLE

Climate-induced food price volatility and household nutrition security in India: A systematic review of evidence from the last decade

Shoba Suri1*
Show Less
1 Senior Fellow, Health Initiative, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi, Delhi , India
Received: 29 May 2026 | Revised: 4 July 2026 | Accepted: 22 July 2026 | Published online: 22 September 2026
© 2026 by the Author(s). This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )
Abstract

Climate change has emerged as a major driver of food systems instability, particularly in developing economies dependent on climate-sensitive agriculture. India, where a substantial proportion of households rely on agriculture for livelihood and food access, faces increasing vulnerability to climate-induced food price volatility. This systematic review synthesizes evidence published between 2015 and 2025 on the relationship between climate change, food price fluctuations, and household nutrition security in India. The review examines how extreme climatic events such as droughts, floods, erratic rainfall, and heatwaves affect agricultural production, disrupt supply chains, and increase food prices, thereby reducing household access to nutritious diets. Evidence from multiple Indian case studies indicates that poor and marginalized households are disproportionately affected through reduced dietary diversity, lower caloric intake, and increased malnutrition risks. The review further identifies adaptation strategies including climate-smart agriculture, public distribution systems, crop diversification, and social protection mechanisms. Significant research gaps remain regarding longitudinal nutrition outcomes, regional disparities, and integrated climate–nutrition policy frameworks. The findings emphasize the urgent need for resilient food systems and nutrition-sensitive climate policies in India.

Keywords
Climate change
Food price volatility
Nutrition security
Food inflation
India
Household food security
Climate resilience
Funding
None.
Conflict of interest
The author declares she has no competing interests.
References
  1. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, International Fund for Agricultural Development, United Nations Children’s Fund, World Food Programme, World Health Organization. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025: Addressing High Food Price Inflation for Food Security and Nutrition. Rome: FAO; IFAD; UNICEF; WFP; WHO; 2025. doi: 10.4060/cd6008en
  2. Das A, Kumar S, Kasala K, et al. Effects of climate change on food security and nutrition in India: a systematic review. Curr Res Environ Sustain. 2025;9:100286. doi: 10.1016/j.crsust.2025.100286
  3. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, World Meteorological Organization. Extreme Heat and Agriculture: FAO-WMO Joint Report. Rome, Italy; Geneva, Switzerland: FAO and WMO; 2026. doi: 10.4060/cd9394en
  4. Chandrasekhar CP. Not a benign market: an analysis of food price inflation and volatility. Agrar South J Polit Econ. 2013;2(2):121-159. doi: 10.1177/2277976013493572
  5. Hadley K, Wheat S, Rogers HH, et al. Mechanisms underlying food insecurity in the aftermath of climate-related shocks: a systematic review. Lancet Planet Health. 2023;7(3):e242-e250. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00003-7
  6. High Level Panel of Experts on Food Security and Nutrition. Food Security and Nutrition: Building a Global Narrative Towards 2030. Rome, Italy: FAO; 2020. https://openknowledge.fao.org/handle/20.500.14283/ca9759en
  7. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Geneva, Switzerland: IPCC; 2023. doi: 10.59327/IPCC/AR6-9789291691647
  8. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, International Fund for Agricultural Development, United Nations Children’s Fund, World Food Programme, World Health Organization. The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2024: Financing to End Hunger, Food Insecurity and Malnutrition in All Its Forms. Rome, Italy: FAO; IFAD; UNICEF; WFP; WHO; 2024. doi: 10.4060/cd1254en
  9. Baig IA, Praveen B, Azam K, Salam MA. The climate change and agricultural sector in India: impact, adaptation and mitigation. Indian Econ J. Published online February 26, 2026. doi: 10.1177/00194662251410146
  10. Li X, Kato T, Kongsurakan P, Nakagawa T, Suzuki A. Long-term crop yield dynamics, stability and sensitivities to large-scale climate oscillations across India. Field Crops Res. 2026;342:110462. doi: 10.1016/j.fcr.2026.110462
  11. Boruah M. Fixing India’s heat-stressed agriculture: the migration story. The Migration Story. Published February 7, 2025. Accessed September 10, 2026. https://themigrationstory.com/post/fixing-indias-heat-stressed-agriculture/
  12. Anshida M, Murugan PP, Senthilkumar M, et al. Impact of climate change on food security: a systematic literature review and bibliometric analysis. Sustain Futures. 2026;11:101826. doi: 10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101826
  13. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2024-2033. Paris: OECD Publishing; Rome: FAO; 2024. doi: 10.1787/4c5d2cfb-en
  14. Harris F, Amarnath G, Joy EJ, Dangour AD, Green RF. Climate-related hazards and Indian food supply: assessing the risk using recent historical data. Glob Food Sec. 2022;33:100625. doi: 10.1016/j.gfs.2022.100625
  15. Khatoon N, Rajput S, Khan R. Assessing food security and agricultural performance through infrastructure and sustainability indicators in India. Discov Sustain. 2026;7(1):254. doi: 10.1007/s43621-025-02156-y
  16. Mandal R, Goswami B, Sarma M, Nath HK. Extreme weather events and food insecurity in Northeast India. In: Sustainable Development Goals in Northeast India. Springer Nature; 2023:101-126. doi: 10.1007/978-981-19-6478-7_5
  17. Santhosh Kumar M, Venkatesa Palanichamy N, ShivaKumar KM, Chandrakumar M, Kalpana M, Murugananthi D. The effect of climate shocks on food price inflation, India. J Agric Food Res. 2026;26:102636. doi: 10.1016/j.jafr.2026.102636
  18. Birgani RA, Kianirad A, Shab-Bidar S, Djazayeri A, Pouraram H, Takian A. Climate Change and Food Price: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Observational Studies, 1990-2021. AJCC. 2022;11(02):103-132. doi: 10.4236/ajcc.2022.112006
  19. Nayak P, Jena PK. The interplay of climate, subsidies and monetary factors in shaping India’s food price inflation. Indian Econ J. Published online February 26, 2026. doi: 10.1177/00194662261425167
  20. Samal A, Ummalla M, Goyari P. The impact of macroeconomic factors on food price inflation: an evidence from India. Future Bus J. 2022;8(1):15. doi: 10.1186/s43093-022-00127-7
  21. Sinha M, Sendhil R, Chandel BS, et al. Are multidimensional poor more vulnerable to climate change? Evidence from rural Bihar, India. Soc Indic Res. 2022;162(1):123-149. doi: 10.1007/s11205-021-02827-z
  22. Hirvonen K, Bai Y, Headey D, Masters WA. Affordability of the EAT-Lancet reference diet: a global analysis. Lancet Glob Health. 2020;8(1):e59-e66. doi: 10.1016/S2214-109X(19)30447-4
  23. Raj R, Sahoo BK. Dietary diversity in the face of climate change: an Indian household perspective. Food Sec. 2025;17(2):515-539. doi: 10.1007/s12571-024-01510-8
  24. Kapoor M, Rajan S, Dhamija G, et al. Food consumption patterns and their micronutrient content in India: Evidence from the household consumption expenditure surveys, 2011–12 and 2023–24. Eur J Clin Nutr. 2026;80(6):583-593. doi: 10.1038/s41430-026-01732-3
  25. Gupta AD, Datta A, Gupta R. Higher temperatures and household nutrition: evidence from India. Food Policy. 2025;135:102919. doi: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102919
  26. Ruel MT, Quisumbing AR, Balagamwala M. Nutrition-sensitive agriculture: what have we learned so far? Glob Food Sec. 2018;17:128-153. doi: 10.1016/j.gfs.2018.01.002
  27. Mahapatra B, Walia M, Rao CAR, et al. Vulnerability of agriculture to climate change increases the risk of child malnutrition: evidence from a large-scale observational study in India. PLoS One. 2021;16(6):e0253637. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0253637
  28. McKay FH, Sims A, van der Pligt P. Measuring food insecurity in India: a systematic review of the current evidence. Curr Nutr Rep. 2023;12(2):358-367. doi: 10.1007/s13668-023-00470-3
  29. Herforth A, Bai Y, Venkat A, Mahrt K, Ebel A, Masters WA. Cost and Affordability of Healthy Diets Across and Within Countries. Background paper for The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2020. FAO Agricultural Development Economics Technical Study No. 9. Rome, Italy: FAO; 2020. doi: 10.4060/cb2431en
  30. Birthal P, Khan MT, Negi DS, Agarwal S. Impact of climate change on yields of major food crops in India: implications for food security. Agric Econ Res Rev. 2014;27(2):145-155. doi: 10.5958/0974-0279.2014.00019.6
  31. Raghunathan K, Headey D, Herforth A. Affordability of nutritious diets in rural India. Food Policy. 2021;99:101982. doi: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2020.101982
  32. Awoke MD, Brück T. Climate, conflict, and food security: a systematic review of household-level evidence (2020-2025). J Health Popul Nutr. 2026;45(1):70. doi: 10.1186/s41043-026-01267-0
  33. Kulkarni S, Gedam S. Geospatial approach to categorize and compare the agro-climatological droughts over Marathwada region of Maharashtra, India. ISPRS Ann Photogramm Remote Sens Spatial Inf Sci. 2018;IV-5:279-285. doi: 10.5194/isprs-annals-IV-5-279-2018
  34. Narayanan K, Sirola RB, Rasheed S, Kumar S. Congruity between crop diversification and dietary diversity: study of Akole block in Maharashtra. In: 8th International Summit on Nutrition and Health (2022) – Abstracts. BMJ Publishing Group Ltd; 2023:A2.2-A3. doi: 10.1136/bmjnph-2023-nnedprosummit2022.4
  35. Kumari P, Singh A. Differential impact of flood prone areas on household food insecurity in Bihar: an analysis of financial and dietary access disparities. J Sci Res Rep. 2025;31(11):748-755. doi: 10.9734/jsrr/2025/v31i113707
  36. Nepal AK, Neupane N. Living in the flood plain: can financial inclusion, productive assets and coping mechanism help reduce food insecurity? Environ Chall. 2022;6:100437. doi: 10.1016/j.envc.2021.100437
  37. Chettri D, Datta P, Behera B. Climate change and household food security in the Himalayas: a systematic review of the challenges and household adaptive measures. Environ Dev. 2024;51:101019. doi: 10.1016/j.envdev.2024.101019
  38. Hussain A, Qamar FM. Dual challenge of climate change and agrobiodiversity loss in mountain food systems in the Hindu-Kush Himalaya. One Earth. 2020;3(5):539-542. doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2020.10.016
  39. Iwasaki S. Linking disaster management to livelihood security against tropical cyclones: a case study on Odisha state in India. Int J Disaster Risk Reduct. 2016;19:57-63. doi: 10.1016/j.ijdrr.2016.08.019
  40. Panda D, Anand RR, Devi M. Sustainable livelihood and effective disaster response: a case study of Phailin cyclone of Odisha, India. Prev Treat Nat Disasters. 2025;4(1):311-323. doi: 10.54963/ptnd.v4i1.1133
  41. Bhattacharjee B. Erratic pre-monsoon, monsoon rainfall impacts North East agriculture. Down To Earth. Published July 29, 2022. Accessed September 10, 2026. https://www.downtoearth.org.in/agriculture/erratic-pre-monsoon-monsoon-rainfall-impacts-north-east-agriculture-84038
  42. Das I, Deka S. Impact of flood on the socio-economic conditions in the southern part of Kamrup District, Assam. Space Cult India. 2021;8(4):106-119. doi: 10.20896/saci.v8i4.665
  43. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. The State of Food and Agriculture 2021. Rome, Italy: FAO; 2021. doi: 10.4060/cb4476en
  44. Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare. National Mission for Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA). Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Government of India; 2014-15. Accessed September 17, 2026. https://nmsa.dac.gov.in/
  45. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Climate-Smart Agriculture Sourcebook. Rome, Italy: FAO; 2013. https://www.fao.org/4/i3325e/i3325e.pdf
  46. Bhatnagar S, Chaudhary R, Sharma S, et al. Exploring the dynamics of climate-smart agricultural practices for sustainable resilience in a changing climate. Environ Sustain Indic. 2024;24:100535. doi: 10.1016/j.indic.2024.100535
  47. Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Government of India. Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayee Yojana Guidelines. Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare; Published July 14, 2015. Accessed September 10, 2026. https://pmksy.gov.in/pdflinks/Guidelines_English.pdf
  48. Pingali P, Aiyar A, Abraham M, Rahman A. Transforming Food Systems for a Rising India. Palgrave Studies in Agricultural Economics and Food Policy. Palgrave Macmillan Cham; 2019. doi: 10.1007/978-3-030-14409-8
  49. Jana A, Chattopadhyay A, Mishra S. Spatial association between nutrient deficiency and agricultural diversity in India. Discov Sustain. 2026;7(1):425. doi: 10.1007/s43621-026-02688-x
  50. Adam AK, Sadhu T, Mondal BP, Pamucar D. Low-carbon agricultural practices enhance climate resilience and food security in India. Discov Sustain. 2026;7(1):142. doi: 10.1007/s43621-025-01675-y
  51. Viswanathan PK, Kavya K, Bahinipati CS. Global Patterns of Climate-resilient Agriculture: A Review of Studies and Imperatives for Empirical Research in India. Rev Dev Change. 2020;25(2):169-192. doi: 10.1177/0972266120966211
  52. Aryal JP, Sapkota TB, Rahut DR, Jat ML. Agricultural sustainability under emerging climatic variability: the role of climate-smart agriculture and relevant policies in India. Int J Innov Sustain Dev. 2020;14(2):219-245. doi: 10.1504/IJISD.2020.106243
  53. Ministry of Law and Justice of India. National Food Security Act, 2013. Published September 10, 2013. Accessed September 17, 2026. https://nfsa.gov.in/portal/nfsa-act
  54. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Cambridge University Press; 2022. doi: 10.1017/9781009325844
  55. Arora S, Saini H, Oberoi S, Singh S, Nabi T. Addressing the Visibly Invisible: Climatic and Economic Vulnerability to Household Food Insecurity in Punjab, India. SSRN. Preprint posted online August 30, 2024. Accessed September 17, 2026. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.4935594
  56. Kamal N. Climate Shocks Kitchen Staples: How Extreme Weather Events Drive Food & Vegetable Inflation in India. Times of India. Published 2025. Accessed September 17, 2026. https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chandigarh/climate-shocks-kitchen-staples-how-extreme-weather-events-drive-food-vegetable-inflation-in-india/articleshow/123640509.cms
  57. Mahapatra R. Climate change is making food inflation ‘endemic’ in India. Down to Earth. Published 2024. Accessed September 17, 2026. https://www.downtoearth.org.in/climate-change/climate-change-is-making-food-inflation-endemic-in-india-2
  58. Chakrabarti S, Kishore A. Food and Nutrition Security for All? Reach and Dietary Implications of India’s Public Distribution System. SSRN. Accessed September 17, 2026. doi: 10.2139/ssrn.5255195
  59. Shrinivas A, Baylis K, Crost B. Food Transfers and Child Nutrition: Evidence from India’s Public Distribution System. Am Econ J Appl Econ. 2025;17(3):161-207. doi: 10.1257/app.20220505
  60. Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food & Public Distribution, Government of India. One Nation - One Ration Card Scheme. Press Information Bureau; 2019. Accessed September 17, 2026. https://www.pib.gov.in/Pressreleaseshare.aspx?PRID=1580396&reg=3&lang=2
  61. Braimoh A, Singh H, Prasann A. Climate Adaptation and Agriculture in South Asia. In: From Risk to Resilience: Helping People and Firms Adapt in South Asia. World Bank; 2021:281-299. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/66936f07-0132-4f91-b028-376a9e0d4167/content
  62. Dutta P, Murgai R, Ravallion M, van de Walle D. Right to Work? Assessing India’s Employment Guarantee Scheme in Bihar. World Bank; 2014. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/104331468266411269/pdf/Right-to-work-assessing-Indias-employment-guarantee-scheme-in-Bihar.pdf
  63. Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Government of India. PM-KISAN Scheme Guidelines. Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare; 2019. Accessed September 17, 2026. https://pmkisan.gov.in/Documents/RevisedPM-KISANOperationalGuidelines(English).pdf
  64. United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF). Nutrition, for Every Child: UNICEF Nutrition Strategy 2020–2030. New York: UNICEF; 2020. https://www.unicef.org/media/92031/file/UNICEF%20Nutrition%20Strategy%202020-2030.pdf
  65. United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF). A Threat to Progress: Confronting the Effects of Climate Change on Child Health and Well-Being. Children’s Environmental Health Collaborative. Published 2024. Accessed September 10, 2026. https://ceh.unicef.org/events-and-resources/knowledge-library/threat-progress-confronting-effects-climate-change-child
  66. Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, Government of India. Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana Operational Guidelines. Department of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare; 2016. Accessed September 17, 2026. https://pmfby.gov.in/pdf/Revised_Operational_Guidelines.pdf
  67. Tiwari R, Chand K, Anjum B. Crop insurance in India: A review of Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY). FIIB Bus Rev. 2020;9(4):249-255. doi: 10.1177/2319714520966084
Share
Back to top
Explora: Environment and Resource, Electronic ISSN: 3060-9046 Published by AccScience Publishing