Evaluation of long-term care expenditures from the silver economy perspective
Silver economics is a field of science that evaluates the long-term care needs that develop because of aging from the economics perspective within the supply and demand framework. The expenditures and investments made to meet long-term care needs constitute the main subject of long-term care expenditures. This study empirically tested the relationship between long-term care expenditures and life expectancy. Expenditures on long-term care facilities (LTCFE) were taken as the dependent variable, and life expectancy at birth (LEAB) and life expectancy at 65 years and over (LEO65) were taken as independent variables. The analysis included data from 25 countries with regular LTCFE from 2004 to 2020. The variables were analyzed using the econometric model established within the framework of panel data analysis. According to the least squares analysis results, a 1% increase in LEAB increased LTCFE by 2.1%, while a 1% increase in LEO65 decreased LTCFE by 0.54%. Moreover, a unidirectional causality relationship was found between LTCFE and LEAB and LEO65. The empirical evidence suggests that life expectancy impacted LTCFE. According to the findings, they emphasize the importance of aligning policy frameworks with demographic changes to ensure sustainable long-term care systems in aging societies.
- Aina, F.O., Fadare, J.O., Deji-Dada, O.O., & Agbesanwa.T.A. (2021). Increasing burden of aging population on health services utilization: A myth or reality in a country with predominantly young population. Aging Medicine and Healthcare, 12(2):41-45. https://doi.org/10.33879/AMH.122.2020.07023
- Bal, T. (2016). OECD ülke uygulamaları doğrultusunda Uzun Dönemli Bakım (UDB) hizmetlerinin finansmanı ve Türkiye için öneriler. Sosyal Güvenlik Dergisi, 6(1):159-196.
- Brent, R.J. (2022). Life expectancy in nursing homes. Applied Economics, 54(16):1877-1888. https://doi.org/10.1080/00036846.2021.1983138
- Colombo, F., Llena-Nozal, A., Mercier, J., & Tjadens, F. (2011). Help Wanted?: Providing and Paying for Long-term Care. Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/9789264097759-en
- Congressional Research Service. (2023). Who Pays for Long-term Services and Supports? Available from: https://crsreports. congress.gov [Last accessed on 2023 Dec 09].
- Costa-Font, J., & Vilaplana-Prieto, C. (2023). Investing’ in care for old age? An examination of long-term care expenditure dynamics and its spillovers. Empirical Economics, 64(1):1-30. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00181-022-02246-0
- Cristea, M., Noja, G.G., Stefea, P., & Sala, A.L. (2020). The impact of population aging and public health support on eu labor markets. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 17(4):1439. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17041439
- Demirci, Ş., Yetim, B., & Konca, M. (2019). Evaluation of the effectiveness of long-term care services in OECD countries. Anemon Muş Alparslan University Journal of Social Sciences, 8(1):305-313. https://doi.org/10.18506/anemon.614188
- European Commission (EC). (2015). Growing the European Silver Economy. Available from: http://ec.europa.eu/ research/innovation-union/pdf/active-healthy-ageing/ silvereco.pdf [Last accessed on 2020 May 01].
- French, E.B., Jeremy, M., Aragon, A., Bakx, P., Chalkley, M., Chen, SH., et al. (2017). End-of-life medical spending in last twelve months of life is lower than previously reported. Health Affairs (Millwood), 36(7):1211-1217. https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2017.0174
- Granger, C.W.J. (1969). Investigating causal relations by econometric models and cross-spectral methods. Econometrica, 37(3):424-438.
- Ilkkaracan, I., & Kim, K. (2019). The Employment Generation Impact of Meeting SDG Targets in Early Childhood Care, Education, Health and Long-term Care in 45 Countries. Geneva: International Labour Office. Available from: https:// www.ilo.org/publns [Last accessed on 2024 Oct 09].
- Jaba, E., Balan, C.B., & Robu, I.B. (2014). The relationship between life expectancy at birth and health expenditures estimated by a cross-country and time-series analysis. Emerging Markets Queries in Finance and Business, 15:108-114. https://doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00454-7
- Levin, A., Lin, C., & Chu, C.J. (2002). Unit root tests in panel data: Asymptotic and finite-sample properties. Journal of Econometrics, 108(1):1-24. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(01)00098-7
- Norouzi, N., & Angel, J.L. (2023). Intergenerational day centers: A new wave in adult and child day care. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 20(1):809. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph20010809
- (2017). Health at a Glance 2017: OECD Indicators. Paris: OECD Publishing.
- Olivares-Tirado, P., Tamiya, N., Kashiwagi, M., & Kashiwagi, K. (2011). Predictors of the highest long-term care expenditures in Japan. BMC Health Services Research, 11(1):103. https://doi.org/10.1186/1472-6963-11-103
- Şahbudak, E., & Şahin, D. (2015). Analyzing the relationship between health and economic growth: A panel regression analysis on BRIC Countries. Journal of Business and Economics Studies, 3(4), 154-160.
- Schneider, U., & Buchinger, C. (2009). Projections of Future Long-term Care Expenditure in Austria (2008-2030) with Special Consideration of Assistive Technologies. Research Report for the Federal Ministry for Transport, Innovation and Technology. Vienna Research Institute for Economics of Aging. Vienna: University of Economics and Business.
- Şener, M., & Yiğit, V. (2017). Technical efficiency of health systems: A research on OECD countries. Süleyman Demirel University Journal of Institute of Social Sciences, 26(1):266-290.
- Sey, N., & Aydin, B. (2019). Determinants of life expectancy: An econometric analysis on the case of Japan. International Journal of Economics, Business and Politics, 3(2):151-170. https://doi.org/10.29216/ueip.572043
- Spielauer, M. (2001). Microsimulation Modeling of Population, Economic Growth and Social Security Systems. Interim Report IR-01-026. Austria: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).
- Spielauer, M. (2011). What is social science microsimulation? Social Science Computer Review. 29(1):9-20. https://doi.org/10.1177/0894439310370085
- Spitzer, S., & Reiter, C. (2024). Demographic change, healthcare, and long-term care. In: Renner, A.T., Plank, L., & Getzner, M. (eds.). Handbook of Social Infrastructure. Ch. 3. Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Publishing, p.57-85.
- Streicher, G, Famira-Mühlberger, U., & Firgo, M. (2022). The economic impact of long-term care services. Zeitschrift für Sozialreform, 68(2):211-235. https://doi.org/10.1515/zsr-2022-0009
- Tang, J.N., Lai, C.C., & Lin, E.S. (2009). Military expenditure and unemployment rates: Granger causality tests using global panel data. Defense and Peace Economics, 20(4):253-267. https://doi.org/10.1080/10242690903105257
- Teraoka, E., Kunisawa, S., & Imanaka, Y. (2021). Trajectories of end-of-life medical and long-term care expenditures for older adults in Japan: Retrospective longitudinal study using a large-scale linked database of medical and long-term care claims. BMC Geriatrics, 21(1):403. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12877-021-02215-9
- Ugalmugle, S., & Swain, R. (2021). Long-term Care Market. Global Market Insight. https://www.gminsights.com/ pressrelease/long-term-care-market [Last accessed on 2024 Oct 09].
- Vlad, R., & Mădălina, R. (2012). The impact of ageing population on the social security budget: Case study for Brazil, China, Germany, Japan, and the United States. Budgetary Research Review, 1(4):3-37.
- Available from: http://www.who.int/news-room/fact/sheets/ detail/ageing-and-health [Last accessed on 2021 Dec 04].