Being able to breathe again: Impact of climate change on human mobility in Sub-Saharan Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa is experiencing mounting economic and livelihood pressures as climate change intensifies, leading to frequent droughts, extreme temperatures, and unpredictable rainfall that reduce agricultural productivity and destabilize household incomes. In response, migration has emerged as a key coping strategy, with individuals and households relocating to urban areas or other countries in search of better opportunities. This study investigates climate-induced mobility in Tanzania, Ethiopia, Uganda, and Malawi. Using data from the World Bank Climate Change Knowledge Portal, the World Development Indicators, and the Global Migration Data Portal, a fixed-effects model was employed to analyze how droughts, temperature fluctuations, and rainfall variability influence migration dynamics. Findings revealed that climate change and economic vulnerability jointly shape migration in sub-Saharan Africa. A major drought event or a 1°C rise in temperature was associated with a 2–3% increase in migration, especially in agriculture-dependent economies such as Ethiopia and Uganda. A 20–30% decline in rainfall reduced rural incomes by up to 15%, triggering 5–7% rural-to-urban migration. Repeated droughts lowered farm productivity by 12–18% and raised migration by 10–15%, while stronger economies and stable governance reduced mobility by up to 40%. Youth aged 18–35 constitute the majority of migrants seeking better livelihoods. The fixed-effects results showed that temperature significantly influenced migration in Ethiopia and Uganda, whereas moderate rainfall had a weaker effect. The study concludes that human mobility serves as both an economic and environmental adaptation to climate stress. It recommends strategies such as livelihood diversification, youth employment creation, strengthening agricultural resilience, and expanding social protection systems to support sustainable adaptation.
Angula, M. N. (2010). Gender and climate change: Namibia case study. Heinrich Böll Foundation.
Banda, P., Ndlovu, T., & Tekle, H. (2025). Youth migration and climate resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa: Emerging evidence from policy and practice. African Development Review, 37(2), 211–230.
Banerjee, S., Gerlitz, J. Y., & Hoermann, B. (2014). Labour migration as a response strategy to water hazards in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD).
Barrios, S., Bertinelli, L., & Strobl, E. (2006). Climatic change and rural–urban migration: The case of sub-Saharan Africa. Journal of Urban Economics, 60(3):357–371. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jue.2006.04.005
Baum-Snow, N., Brandt, L., Henderson, J. V., Turner, M. A., & Zhang, Q. (2017). Roads, railroads, and decentralization of Chinese cities. Review of Economics and Statistics, 99(3):435–448. https://doi.org/10.1162/REST_a_00632
Bohra-Mishra, P., Oppenheimer, M., & Hsiang, S. M. (2014). Nonlinear permanent migration response to climatic variations but minimal response to disasters. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(27):9780–9785. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1317166111
Carleton, T. A., & Hsiang, S. M. (2016). Social and economic impacts of climate. Science, 353(6304), aad9837. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aad9837
Cattaneo, C., Beine, M., Fröhlich, C. J., Kniveton, D., Martinez-Zarzoso, I., Mastrorillo, M., & Schraven, B. (2019). Human migration in the era of climate change. Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, 13(2):189–206. https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rez008
Chen, W., Okafor, C., & Mbaye, A. (2025). Threshold climate events and migration decisions in Eastern Africa: A multi-country analysis. Climate and Development, 17(1):44–61.
Cobbinah, P. B., Erdiaw-Kwasie, M. O., & Amoateng, P. (2015). Africa’s urbanisation: Implications for sustainable development. Cities, 47:62–72. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cities.2015.03.013
Desmet, K., & Rossi-Hansberg, E. (2009). Spatial growth and industry age. Journal of Economic Theory, 144(6):2477–2502. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jet.2009.07.004
Henderson, J. V. (2006). Urbanization, economic geography, and growth. In P. Aghion & S. Durlauf (Eds.), Handbook of economic growth (Vol. 1B, pp. 1543–1598). Elsevier. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0684(05)01024-7
International Organization for Migration. (2012). Compendium of IOM’s activities in disaster risk reduction and resilience. International Organization for Migration.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2013). Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. Cambridge University Press.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2014). Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Cambridge University Press.
Ionesco, D., Mokhnacheva, D., & Gemenne, F. (2017). Atlas of environmental migration. Routledge.
Johnson, L., Tekle, H., & Ndlovu, T. (2025). Building resilience and managing climate-induced mobility in Africa. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No. 10475.
Jungehülsing, J. (2010). Gender and climate change: A closer look at existing evidence. Heinrich Böll Foundation.
Mbaye, A. A., Chen, W., & Okafor, C. (2025). Youth and climate migration in Sub-Saharan Africa: Economic and demographic perspectives. World Development, 175, 106325.
Naudé, W. (2010). The determinants of migration from Sub-Saharan African countries. Journal of African Economies, 19(3):330–356. https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejp005
Ndlovu, T., Banda, P., & Johnson, L. (2025). Climate shocks, governance, and migration outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa. African Journal of Economic Policy, 32(4):99–117.
Niang, I., Ruppel, O. C., Abdrabo, M. A., Essel, A., Lennard, C., Padgham, J., & Urquhart, P. (2014). Africa. In V. R. Barros et al. (Eds.), Climate change 2014: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: Regional aspects (pp. 1199–1265). Cambridge University Press.
Okafor, C., Mbaye, A. A., & Chen, W. (2025). Migration as adaptation: Rethinking resilience strategies in African rural households. Migration Studies, 13(1), 88–106.
Smith, J., Mbaye, A., & Tekle, H. (2025). Migration as necessity: Climate extremes and adaptive mobility in Sub-Saharan Africa. Global Environmental Change, 80, 102699.
Tekle, H., Banda, P., & Johnson, L. (2025). Designing adaptive migration policies for climate resilience in Africa. United Nations Economic Commission for Africa Working Paper Series, 2025/12.
Warner, K., Ehrhart, C., de Sherbinin, A., Adamo, S., & Chai-Onn, T. (2012). Where the rain falls: Climate change, food and livelihood security, and migration. United Nations University Institute for Environment and Human Security (UNU-EHS).
Wolde, H., Banda, P., & Ndlovu, T. (2023). Mapping climate-induced human mobility in Sub-Saharan Africa. Environmental Research Letters, 18(3), 035401.
World Health Organization. (2002). Gender and health in disasters. World Health Organization.
Zhao, Q., Liu, T., & Zhao, Y. (2018). Migration, urbanization, and economic growth in China: Evidence from provincial data. Population Research and Policy Review, 37(2):229–250. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-017-9455-2