Inequality and adult mortality: A vector autoregression–Granger analysis of three European countries
Health outcomes are shaped by the conditions influenced by social, political, and economic forces. This study analyzes the effect of the human development index (HDI), gender inequality index (GII), and the proportion of youth neither in education, employment, nor training (NEET) on adult mortality rates using data from the United Nations, the World Bank, and Our World in Data. This study explores data from 2004 to 2022, employing the vector autoregressive model and Granger causality test, focusing on Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia, and Moldova. Granger causality analysis reveals one-way directional causality between HDI and adult mortality rate in North Macedonia and Moldova and between NEET and adult mortality in North Macedonia. In addition, a causal relationship was found between adult mortality and GII in Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia, suggesting that gender inequality is a significant determinant of mortality rates over time. These findings underscore that persistent gender differences remain a key challenge for sustainable development in these countries. The causal relationship between HDI and adult mortality in North Macedonia and Moldova reveals that the influence of historical and socioeconomic conditions, such as the overall standard of living and well-being, has a substantial effect on adult mortality rates in these two countries. These findings highlight the need for targeted policies to reduce social inequalities and mitigate their health consequences. The insights gained from this research contribute to a better understanding of structural determinants of mortality and support evidence-based approaches to sustainable development in these European countries.
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