Marine ranching for carbon-neutral fisheries in China: Carbon sink evidence, policy instruments, and transition pathways
Marine-ranching carbon sink (MRCS) is defined as an additional, verifiable net climate benefit attributable to a bounded ranching intervention after considering baseline conditions, carbon fate, life-cycle emissions, and uncertainty. Marine ranching is increasingly discussed in China as a means to align fisheries with the national carbon-neutrality agenda. However, terms such as additional biomass, harvested carbon, long-lived storage, avoided emissions, and offset credits refer to different outcomes. This review examines when a marine ranch can deliver a defensible net climate benefit. It combines research on fishery emissions and sequestration, Chinese policy and technical standards, empirical pilot practices, and international work on blue-carbon accounting. The evidence is analyzed through 4 key dimensions: carbon pool alterations, ultimate carbon destination, emissions within the project boundary, and the additionality and verifiability of the claimed change. Chinese estimates demonstrate substantial biological uptake by shellfish and macroalgae, but they vary widely with species coverage, carbon coefficients, treatment of dissolved and particulate carbon, ecological carrying capacity, and deduction of production emissions. Although policy has advanced from demonstration zones to measurement standards and voluntary-market rules, no generally accepted method yet covers an entire ranching system. Therefore, this review interprets marine ranching as a managed area in which restoration, low-input mariculture, operational decarbonization, and monitoring can be combined and tested against a baseline. Credible MRCS claims require carbon-fate evidence, life-cycle inventories, long-term observation, conservative uncertainty treatment, and transparent allocation of benefits.
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