AccScience Publishing / AJWEP / Online First / DOI: 10.36922/AJWEP026370260
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ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE

Compound dry-to-wet transitions and intensifying wet-day rainfall in monsoon-exposed Southern Nghe An, Vietnam

Tran Thi Tuyen1 ,  Nguyen Ha Quynh Giao1 ,  La Thuy Huong1*
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1 Saigon University, Ho Chi Minh City , Vietnam
Received: 9 September 2026 | Revised: 16 September 2026 | Accepted: 22 September 2026 | Published online: 12 October 2026
© 2026 by the Author(s). This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )
Abstract

Monsoon rainfall hazards depend on event intensity and sequence, not annual totals alone. We analyzed 8,766 daily observations from four gauges in southern Nghe An during 1998–2021, together with daily 0.05° Climate Hazards Center InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) rainfall at Nam Dan. Thirteen indices represented amount, wet-day frequency, intensity, extremes, and persistence. A pre-specified core set was evaluated with Sen slopes, modified Mann–Kendall tests, confidence intervals, and within-index false-discovery-rate control. A transition required at least 10 consecutive days below 1 mm followed within seven days by rainfall at or above the station-specific wet-day 95th percentile. Station-level detections (n = 58) formed 41 same-day clusters; 18 detections occurred in 1998–2009 and 40 in 2010–2021. The later-to-earlier rate ratio was 2.22 (bootstrap 95% interval 1.10–4.90), the year-label permutation p-value was 0.056, and a Poisson model with station effects gave a rate ratio of 2.02 per decade (95% confidence interval 1.29–3.16). These estimates indicate recent clustering within this short record, not a detected monotonic station trend. CHIRPS underestimated Nam Dan total rainfall by 13.2% and the simple daily intensity index by 17.2%; annual total wet-day precipitation correlation was 0.81, but only one of 14 gauge transitions matched a CHIRPS event within three days. Thus, CHIRPS supported annual-scale variability more strongly than daily event timing. After within-index adjustment, wet-day intensity increased at Do Luong and Dua, while wet-spell duration increased at Dua, Nam Dan, and Yen Thuong. The proposed transition metric is a meteorological screening tool requiring local impact calibration.

Graphical abstract
Keywords
Compound event
Consecutive dry days
Extreme precipitation
Rainfall concentration
False discovery rate
Vietnam
Funding
This study was funded by Saigon University (CSA.2025.062).
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
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Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution, Electronic ISSN: 1875-8568 Print ISSN: 0972-9860, Published by AccScience Publishing