AccScience Publishing / IJPS / Online First / DOI: 10.36922/ijps.8157
RESEARCH ARTICLE

The effects of economic development and regional disparity on fertility rates in South Korea, 2000 – 2020

Kyungjae Lee1 Seongwoo Lee2*
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1 Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
2 Research Institute of Agriculture and Life Sciences and Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea
Received: 24 December 2024 | Revised: 18 March 2025 | Accepted: 20 March 2025 | Published online: 14 May 2025
© 2025 by the Author(s). This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )
Abstract

The declining total fertility rate in South Korea is a pressing issue, prompting numerous studies aimed at identifying the factors affecting fertility rates. However, limited empirical research has focused on investigating the relationship between regional economic disparity and fertility. This study examines the effects of economic development and regional economic disparity on fertility rates. Employing bivariate models, spatial panel models, and time series models, data on the total fertility rate across 16 metropolitan areas over a 20-year period from 2000 were analyzed. The findings indicate that economic development, as observed in the spatial panel model, has a positive effect on childbirth, although it does not reach statistical significance in the nationwide time series model when accounting for the regional disparity. Conversely, the study reveals a negative impact of Gross Regional Domestic Product disparity among regions on the total fertility rate. Consequently, this research underscores the importance of balanced national development in improving fertility rates, highlighting the detrimental consequences of widening regional disparity on low fertility. In addition, the study offers policy measures to address the challenge of local extinction.

Keywords
Total fertility rate
Economic development
Regional economic disparity
Spatial panel model
Time series model
Funding
This research was supported by the National Research Foundation (NRF) of Korea through the Mid-Career Researcher Program (Project Number: 2024S1A5A2A01021329), funded by the Korean government (Ministry of Science and ICT).
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
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