Components of changes in nuptiality patterns among Ethiopian women: A decomposition analysis of demographic and health surveys
Analyzing shifts in nuptiality patterns plays a significant role in understanding how demographic variables respond to socioeconomic changes. However, there has been a lack of comprehensive research on the sources of changes in nuptiality patterns. This study examines how nuptiality patterns change and investigates the factors linked to changes in two birth cohorts. Data from the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 2000 and 2016 were used. Marriage was observed to be early and nearly universal in both birth cohorts. A large proportion of the difference in the cumulative incidence of first marriage between the cohorts was observed at age 15 and decreased after age 35. However, the age of entry into the first marriage was slightly delayed, with a 46% reduction in the rate of marital dissolution. In addition, the compositional and structural impacts of a covariate were responsible for initiating the cumulative incidence of transition to first marriage. Furthermore, women’s education, occupation, and regional variation were identified as the main contributors to the reduction in the cumulative incidence of first marriage. Results show that the changes in nuptiality patterns were explained by a reduction in cumulative incidence of marriage, a shift in the timing of entry into the first marriage, and marital dissolution across the two birth cohorts. Moreover, socioeconomic factors, spatial drivers, and discriminatory effects between the two cohorts were the sources of changes in nuptiality patterns in Ethiopia.
Alazbih, N.M., Kaya, A.H., Mengistu, M.Y., & Gelaye, K.A. (2023). Determinants of time to first marriage and birth intervals among women of child bearing age in Dabat Health and demographic surveillance system site, Northwest Ethiopia. PLoS One, 18(2):e0281997. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0281997
Aldy, J.E., & Viscusi, W.K. (2008). Adjusting the value of a statistical life for age and cohort effects. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 90(3):573-581. https://doi.org/10.1162/rest.90.3.573
Alteneiji, E. (2023). Value changes in gender roles: Perspectives from three generations of Emirati women. Cogent Social Sciences, 9(1):2184899. https://doi.org/10.1080/23311886.2023.2184899
Amoo, O.E. (2017). Trends and determinants of female age at first marriage in Sub-Saharan Africa (1990-2014): What has changed? African Population Studies, 31(1):3565-3577. https://doi.org/10.11564/31-1-1024
Asfaw, L.S., & Alene, G.D. (2023). Marital dissolution and associated factors in Hosanna, Southwest Ethiopia: A community-based cross-sectional study. BMC Psychology, 11(1):20. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40359-023-01051-3
Ayiga, N., & Rampagane, V. (2013). Determinants of age at first marriage in sub-Saharan Africa: A comparative study of Uganda and South Africa. Journal of Social Development in Africa, 28(1):9-34. https://doi.org/10.4314/JSDA.V28I1
Bongaarts, J., Mensch, B.S., & Blanc, A.K. (2017). Trends in the age at reproductive transitions in the developing world: The role of education. Population Studies (Camb), 71(2):139-154. https://doi.org/10.1080/00324728.2017.1291986
Central Statistical Agency (CSA) [Ethiopia] & ICF. (2016). Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey 2016. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, and Rockvile, Maryland, USA: CSA and ICF.
Central Statistical Authority [Ethiopia] & ORC Macro. (2001). Ethiopia Demographic and Health Survey 2000. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia and Calverton, Maryland, USA: Centeral Statistical Authority and ORC Macro.
Coale, A. (1967). Trends in age at marriage and the onset of fertility transition in Sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Development Review, 43(S1):112-137. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12043
Coale, A. (1974). Trends in age at marriage and the onset of fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Development Review, 43(S1):112-137. https://doi.org/10.1111/padr.12043
Davis, K. (1963). The theory of change and response in modern demographic history. Population Index, 29(4):345-366. https://doi.org/10.2307/2732014
Dejene, T., & Gurmu, E. (2022). Exploring reproductive trajectories of youths of Oromia, Ethiopia: A life course approach. PLoS One, 17(12):e0279773. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0279773
Dejene, T., & Gurmu, E. (2023). Explaining the gender gap in reproductive transition of Ethiopian youths: A decomposition analysis. International Journal of Population Studies, 9(2):476. https://doi.org/10.36922/ijps.476
Dureti, A., Nega, A., & Yemane, B. (2022). Early Marriage among young girls in Eastern Ethiopia: Trend during 2008-2018. F1000 Research, 10:807. https://doi.org/10.12688/f1000research.55551.2
Elder, G.H. (2008). The life course as developmental theory. Child Development, 69(1):1-12. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-8624.1998.tb06128.x
Elder, G.H. Jr., & George, L.K. (2016). Age, cohorts, and the life course. In: Handbook of the Life Course. Vol. 2. Germany: Springer. p. 59-85. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-20880-0_3
Erulkar, A. (2022). Changes in the prevalence of child marriage in Ethiopia, 2005-2016. Reproductive Health, 19(1):195. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12978-021-01234-4
Geist, C. (2017). Marriage formation in context: Four decades in comparative perspective. Social Sciences, 6(1):9. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci6010009
Gurmu, E., & Etana, D. (2014). Age at first marriage and first birth interval in Ethiopia: Analysis of the roles of social and demographic factors. African Population Studies, 28(3):1332-1344. https://doi.org/10.11564/28-3-625
Hailemariam, A., Alayu, S., & Teller, C. (2011). The national population policy (NPP) of Ethiopia: Achievements, challenges and lessons learned, 1993-2010. In: The Demographic Transition and Development in Africa: The Unique Case of Ethiopia. Dordrecht: Springer. p303-321. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-90-481-8918-2_15
Hamedanchi, A., Momtaz, Y.A., Khankeh, H.R., & Zanjari, N. (2020). The growth trend of never-married elderly population in Iran in the third millennium. Journal of Family Medicine and Primary Care, 9(6):2837-2842. https://doi.org/10.4103/jfmpc.jfmpc_264_20
Hertrich, V. (2017). Trends in age at marriage and the onset of fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa. Population and Development Review, 43:112-137.
Himawan, K.K., Bambling, M., & Edirippulige, S. (2019). Modernization and singlehood in Indonesia: Psychological and social impacts. Kasetsart Journal of Social Sciences, 40(2):499-506. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.kjss.2017.09.008
ICF. (2018). Demographic and Health Surveys Standard Recode Manual for DHS7. The Demographic and Health Surveys Program. Rockville, Maryland, U.S.A: ICF.
Imron, A., Habibah, S.M., & Aziz, U.K. (2020). Determinant age at first marriage among women in East Java. Jurnal Biometrika Dan Kependudukan, 9(2):104-111. https://doi.org/10.20473/jbk.v9i2.2020.104-111
Islam, M.K., Haque, M.R., & Hossain, M.B. (2016). Regional variations in child marriage in Bangladesh. Journal of Biosocial Science, 48(5):694-708. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021932016000110
Khalajabadi, F.F., & Rahimi, A. (2019). Determinants of age at first marriage in selected countries of Asia and the Pacific Region; A systematic review. Sociological Review, 25(2):299-336. https://doi.org/10.22059/jsr.2019.70357
Liefbroer, A.C., & Corijn, M. (1999). Who, what, where, and when? Specifying the impact of educational attainment and labour force participation on family formation. European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, 15(1):45-75. https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1006137104191
Lindstrom, D.P., & Woubalem, Z. (2003). The demographic components of fertility decline in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: A decomposition analysis. Genus, 59(3-4):147-158. https://doi.org/10.2307/29788778
MacQuarrie, K.L.D., & Juan, C. (2019). Trends and factors associated with child marriage in four Asian countries. Gates Open Research, 3:1467. https://doi.org/10.12688/gatesopenres.13021.1
Makheti, F.M. (2008). Determinants of Age at First Marriage in Kenya: A Comparative Analysis between Men and Women. [Doctoral Dissertation].
Muhoza, D.N. (2022). Fertility transition in Rwanda: What does the trend in nuptiality reveal? Genus, 78(1):1-18. https://doi.org/10.1186/s41118-022-00152-y
Ntoimo, L.F.C., & Akokuwebe, M.E. (2014). Prevalence and patterns of marital dissolution in Nigeria. The Nigerian Journal of Sociology and Anthropology, 12(2):1-15. https://doi.org/10.36108/njsa/4102/12(0210)
Parsons, J., Edmeades, J., Kes, A., Petroni, S., Sexton, M., & Wodon, Q. (2015). Economic impacts of child marriage: A review of the literature. Review of Faith and International Affairs, 13(3):12-22. https://doi.org/10.1080/15570274.2015.1075757
Paul, P. (2019). Effects of education and poverty on the prevalence of girl child marriage in India: A district-level analysis. Children and Youth Services Review, 100:16-21. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.childyouth.2019.02.033
Pintilie, M. (2006). Competing Risks: A Practical Perspective. United States: John Wiley and Sons.
Pothisiri, W., Teerawichitchainan, B., & Kaewbuadee, N. (2023). Remarriage in Thailand: A study of emerging trends, correlates, and implications for women’s Well-Being. Journal of Family Issues, 45(5):1217-1241. https://doi.org/10.1177/0192513X231155659
Rahimi, E., & Hashemi Nazari, S.S. (2021). A detailed explanation and graphical representation of the Blinder- Oaxaca decomposition method with its application in health inequalities. Emerging Themes in Epidemiology, 18(12):12. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12982-021-00100-9
Rios-Avila, F. (2020). Recentered influence functions (RIFs) in Stata: RIF regression and RIF decomposition. Stata Journal, 20(1):51-94. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X20909690
Roy, K. (2014). Fathering from the long view: Framing personal and social change through life course theory. Journal of Family Theory and Review, 6(4):319-335. https://doi.org/10.1111/jftr.12050
Sarkar, P. (2009). Determinants and effect of early marriage in Bangladesh, 2007. Research Journal of Applied Sciences, 4(5):178-184.
Sayers, A., Evans, J.T., Whitehouse, M.R., & Blom, A.W. (2018). Are competing risks models appropriate to describe implant failure? Acta Orthopaedica, 89(3):256-258. https://doi.org/10.1080/17453674.2018.1444876
Sewnet, A. (2020). Demographic transition in Ethiopia: Evidence of change from 1990 to 2016. The Ethiopian Journal of Social Sciences, 6(2):1-19.
Shapiro, D., & Gebreselassie, T. (2014). Marriage in Sub-Saharan Africa: Trends, determinants, and consequences. Population Research and Policy Review, 33:229-255. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-013-9287-4
Singh, M., Shekhar, C., & Shri, N. (2023). Patterns in age at first marriage and its determinants in India: A historical perspective of last 30 years (1992-2021). SSM-Population Health, 22:101363. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ssmph.2023.101363
Transitional Government of Ethiopian (TGE). (1993). National Population Policy of Ethiopia. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: Office of the Prime Minister.
The DHS Program. (n.d.). Login or Register for Datasets. Available from: https://dhsprogram.com/data/dataset_ admin/login_main.cfm [Last accessed on 2024 Oct 07].
The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia. (2000). The Revised Family Code, Proclamation No. 213/2000. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: Federal Negarit Gazetta.
Zegeye, B., Olorunsaiye, C.Z., Ahinkorah, B.O., Ameyaw, E.K., Budu, E., Seidu, A.A., et al. (2021). Individual/household and community-level factors associated with child marriage in Mali: Evidence from demographic and health survey. BioMed Research International, 2021:5529375. https://doi.org/10.1155/2021/5529375