AccScience Publishing / IJPS / Volume 0 / Issue 0 / DOI: 10.36922/ijps.1338
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Analysis of age-specific fertility in India: Deterministic and non-deterministic modeling approaches

Diptismita Jena1† Prafulla Kumar Swain2†* Manas Ranjan Tripathy1 Prashant Verma3 Pravat Kumar Sarangi1
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1 Department of Statistics, Ravenshaw University, Cuttack, Odisha, India
2 Department of Statistics, Utkal University, Bhubaneswar, Odisha, India
3 Department of Statistics, University of Allahabad, Prayagraj, Uttar Pradesh, India
Submitted: 26 June 2023 | Accepted: 16 August 2023 | Published: 1 December 2023
© 2023 by the Author(s). This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution -Noncommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC 4.0) ( )

The main objective of this study is to investigate the pattern of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) in India using deterministic and non-deterministic approaches. Toward this end, we proposed statistical polynomial regression models to study the distributional pattern of ASFRs for total, rural, and urban women in India. Further, a comparative study considering selected skewed regression models was undertaken. For this study, secondary data on ASFR were collected from Sample Registration System, Statistical Report-2020, and from National Family Health Survey 5 (NFHS-5; 2019 – 2021). It was found that all three subcategories of ASFRs, namely, the total, rural, and urban ASFRs, followed the reciprocal biquadratic polynomial model. On the other hand, all three subcategories of ASFR follow the skew-normal type 2 distribution. Similar findings were also obtained and validated based on NFHS-5 data. Further, the chosen statistical models’ validity and stability were tested using various model validation techniques and model selection criteria.

Age-specific fertility rate
Polynomial regression model
Skewed regression model
Cross validity prediction power
Coefficient of determination

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Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no competing interests.
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International Journal of Population Studies, Electronic ISSN: 2424-8606 Print ISSN: 2424-8150, Published by AccScience Publishing