AccScience Publishing / EJMO / Online First / DOI: 10.36922/EJMO025380403
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ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE

Development of a nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with primary male breast cancer

Fanfan Tang1 ,  Lei Zhu2 ,  Wanju Wang1 ,  Yanyan Zhao3 ,  Yina Hu3*
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1 Department of Thyroid and Breast Surgery, Wuhan Children’s Hospital (Wuhan Maternal and Child Healthcare Hospital), Tongji Medical College, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan, Hubei, China
2 Department of Otolaryngology Surgery, Shenzhen People’s Hospital, Shenzhen, Guangdong, China
3 Department of Nursing, School of Nursing and Health Management, Wuhan Donghu University, Wuhan, Hubei, China
EJMO, 025380403 https://doi.org/10.36922/EJMO025380403
Received: 18 September 2025 | Revised: 9 November 2025 | Accepted: 26 January 2026 | Published online: 9 March 2026
© 2026 by the Author(s). This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution -Noncommercial 4.0 International License (CC-by the license) ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ )
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Abstract

Introduction: Male breast cancer (MBC) is a rare malignancy and, in some cohorts, has been associated with a less favorable prognosis compared to female breast cancer. MBC patients also face an elevated risk of secondary cancers, complicating the identification of disease-specific prognostic factors. Moreover, research focusing exclusively on primary MBC without prior or concurrent malignancies remains limited, hindering accurate outcome prediction for this population.

Objective: This study aims to identify independent prognostic factors and develop a predictive nomogram for MBC.

Methods: Using data from the National Cancer Institute’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program, we analyzed clinicopathological characteristics and survival outcomes in MBC patients. Variable selection was performed using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression, and multivariable Cox regression was applied to evaluate the impact of factors, including age, tumor grade, tumor size, lymph node status, estrogen receptor/progesterone receptor status, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 expression, on overall survival. Calibration curves were generated to assess the predictive accuracy of the nomogram for three‑, five‑, and 10‑year survival.

Results: Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that age, marital status, surgery, tumor size, pathological grade, TNM stage, brain metastasis, and chemotherapy were independent factors affecting the survival prognosis of MBC patients. The nomogram showed good predictive performance (C-index = 0.763, 95% confidence interval: 0.57–0.94), and the calibration curve showed high agreement between the model’s predicted 3-year survival and actual survival. However, predictions for 5- and 10-year survival were unstable.

Conclusion: This study identified age, marital status, surgery, tumor size, pathological grade, TNM stage, brain metastasis, and chemotherapy as significant predictors of overall survival in MBC. A nomogram incorporating these variables showed reliable performance for short-term survival prediction. Early diagnosis and treatment are pivotal in improving the survival rate of MBC.

Keywords
Primary breast cancer
Male
Survival prognosis
Nomogram
Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression algorithm
Funding
This work was supported by the Youth Fundation of Wuhan Donghu University (grant numbers 2023dhzk011 and 2023dhzk014).
Conflict of interest
The authors have no relevant financial or non-financial interests to disclose.
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Eurasian Journal of Medicine and Oncology, Electronic ISSN: 2587-196X Print ISSN: 2587-2400, Published by AccScience Publishing
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