Modeling child hypertension in South African using panel quantile regression
Introduction: Hypertension in children is an emerging public health concern that has traditionally received limited attention, particularly in developing countries such as South Africa.
Objective: This study addresses a methodological gap by modeling pediatric hypertension in South Africa using panel quantile regression analysis, aiming to uncover the heterogeneous effects of key predictors across the blood pressure distribution over time.
Methods: Data were obtained from the South African National Income Dynamics Study Household Surveys conducted in 2014–2015 (Wave 4) and 2017 (Wave 5). We constructed a balanced panel of 103 adolescents (<18 years) who participated in both Waves 4 and 5. Panel quantile regression was applied to examine predictors of blood pressure over time.
Results: The prevalence of child hypertension based on abnormal systolic blood pressure increased slightly from 16.5% in 2014–2015 to 21.4% in 2017. Age, body mass index, gender, exercise frequency, cigarette use, depression, and perceived health status were identified as significant predictors of elevated systolic blood pressure or diastolic blood pressure over time. Fixed-effects and random-effects specifications produced identical point estimates.
Conclusion: These results underscore the importance of targeted interventions that consider modifiable lifestyle and psychosocial factors when addressing hypertension among South African children.
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