AccScience Publishing / AJWEP / Volume 12 / Issue 3 / DOI: 10.3233/AJW-150007
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Prediction of Rain in Bihar, India, Based on  Historical Rain Data

Anand M. Sharan1*
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1 Faculty of Engineering, Memorial University of Newfoundland St. John’s, Newfoundland, Canada A1B 3X5
AJWEP 2015, 12(3), 59–64; https://doi.org/10.3233/AJW-150007
Submitted: 18 January 2014 | Revised: 12 December 2014 | Accepted: 12 December 2014 | Published: 18 July 2015
© 2015 by the Author(s). This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution -Noncommercial 4.0 International License (CC-by the license) ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ )
Abstract

In this work the prediction of rain is based on average of three methods. In these methods, historical  rain data of Bihar are selected for projection. These methods take into account the trends in rain pattern also. 

The predicted results are quite close to the actual rain data for the year 2013. Based on this success, the forecast  was made in December 2013 for the year 2014. This prediction was checked on September 1, 2014, and it was  found that the predicted and the actual rainfall data for June, July and August of 2014 were close. 

The advantage of this approach is that it gives farmers far more time than they get presently when preliminary  predictions are announced by India Meteorological Department in April for each monsoon.

Keywords
Monsoon rain prediction
annual rainfall
rainfall frequency spectrum
El Nino and La Nina influence on rainfall
drought and famine
crop failure
Conflict of interest
The authors declare they have no competing interests.
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Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution, Electronic ISSN: 1875-8568 Print ISSN: 0972-9860, Published by AccScience Publishing