AccScience Publishing / JCTR / Volume 9 / Issue 4 / DOI: 10.18053/jctres.09.202304.22-00019
ORIGINAL ARTICLE

Meta-analysis of clinical trials in the 2020s and beyond: a paradigm shift needed

Jonathan J. Shuster*
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1 Department of Health Outcomes and Bioinformatics, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32605, United States of America
Submitted: 15 February 2022 | Revised: 11 April 2023 | Accepted: 10 June 2023 | Published: 12 July 2023
© 2023 by the Author(s). This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution -Noncommercial 4.0 International License (CC-by the license) ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ )
Abstract

Background: A peer-reviewed Meta-Analysis methods article mathematically proved that mainstream random-effects methods, “weights inversely proportional to the estimated variance,” are flawed and can lead to faulty public health recommendations. Because the arguments causing this off label (unproven) use of mainstream practices were subtle, changing these practices will require much clearer explanations that can be grasped by clinical and translational scientists. There are five assumptions underlying the mainstream’s derivation of its statistical properties. This paper will demonstrate that if the first is true, it follows that the last two are false. Ratio estimation, borrowed from classical survey sampling, provides a rigorous alternative. Papers reporting results rarely fully disclose these assumptions. This is analogous to watching TV ads with the sound muted. You see high quality of life and do not hear about the complications. This article is a poster child for translational science, as it takes a theoretical discovery from the biostatistical world, translates it into language clinical scientists can understand, and thereby can change their research practice.

Aim: This article is aimed at future applications of Meta-Analysis of complete collections of randomized clinical trials. It leaves it to past authors as to whether to reanalyze their data. No blame for past use is assessed.

Methods: By treating the individual completed studies in the Meta-Analysis as a random sample from a conceptual universe of completed studies, we use ratio estimation to obtain estimates of relative risk (ratio of failure rates treatment: control) and mean differences, projecting our sample value to estimate the universe’s value.

Results: Two examples demonstrate that the mainstream methods likely adversely impacted major treatment options. A third example shows that the key mainstream presumption of independence between the study weights and study estimates cannot be supported.

Conclusion: There is no rationale for ever using the mainstream for Meta-Analysis of randomized clinical trials.

Relevance for patients: Future Meta-Analysis of clinical trials should never employ mainstream methods. Doing so could lead to potentially harmful public health policy recommendations. Clinical researchers need to play a primary role to assure good research practices in Meta-Analysis.

Keywords
clinical trial
meta-analysis
random effects
Conflict of interest
None.
References

[1] Shuster JJ. Meta-Analysis 2020: A Dire Alert and a Fix. Biostat Biom Open Access J 2021;10:73-8.

[2] Borenstein M. Common Mistakes in Meta-Analysis and How to Avoid Them. Englewood, NJ: Biostat Inc.; 2019.

[3] Nissen SE, Wolski K. Effect of Rosiglitazone on the Risk of Myocardial Infarction and Death from Cardiovascular Causes. N Engl J Med 2007;356:2457-71.

[4] Neto AS, Cardosa SO, Manetta JA, Pereira VG, Esposito DC, de Oliveira Prado Pasqualucci M, et al. Association Between Use of Lung-Protective Ventilation with Lower Tidal Volumes and Clinical Outcomes Among Patients Without Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome: A Meta-Analysis. JAMA 2012;308:1651-9.

[5] Diamond GA, Kaul S. Rosiglitazone and Cardiovascular Risk. N Engl J Med 2007;357:938-9.

[6] Shuster JJ, Guo JD, Skyler JS. Meta-Analysis of Safety for Low Event-Rate Binomial Trials. Res Synth Methods 2012;3:30-50.

[7] Shuster JJ, Walker MA. Low-Event-Rate Meta-Analyses of Clinical Trials: Implementing Good Practices. Stat Med 2016;35:2467-78.

[8] Borenstein M, Hedges LV, Rothstein HR, Higgins JP. Introduction to Meta-Analysis. New York, NY: John Wiley and Sons; 2009.

[9] Shuster JJ. Nonparametric Optimality of the Sample Mean and Sample Variance. Am Stat 1982;36:176-8. 

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Journal of Clinical and Translational Research, Electronic ISSN: 2424-810X Print ISSN: 2382-6533, Published by AccScience Publishing