AccScience Publishing / AJWEP / Online First / DOI: 10.36922/AJWEP025340259
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ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE

Analysis of rain-induced underground debris flow events in mines based on logistic regression models

Qingtian Zeng1 ,  Aixiang Wu2 ,  Haiyong Cheng3* ,  Zhengrong Li1 ,  Rujun Tuo3 ,  Shaoyong Wang2 ,  Wei Sun3 ,  Chong Chen2 ,  Sugang Sui4
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1 Yunnan Diqing Nonferrous Metals Co., Ltd, Diqing, China
2 School of Civil and Resources Engineering, University of Science and Technology Beijing, Beijing, China
3 Faculty of Land Resources Engineering, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming, Yunnan, China
4 Kunming Prospecting Design Institute of China Nonferrous Metals Industry Co., Ltd, Kunming, China
AJWEP, 025340259 https://doi.org/10.36922/AJWEP025340259
Received: 18 August 2025 | Revised: 13 November 2025 | Accepted: 14 November 2025 | Published online: 3 December 2025
© 2025 by the Author(s). This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )
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Abstract

Rainfall is one of the main external factors triggering debris flows in mines. To investigate the relationship between rainfall and the occurrence of underground debris flows, we selected 249 rainfall events in the study area from 2020 to 2022, including 86 potential underground debris flow events and five large-scale underground debris flow events. A rainfall threshold model for the occurrence of underground debris flows was developed using logistic regression. The model’s accuracy, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, and F1 score were 0.85, 0.9493, and 0.85, respectively, indicating good predictive performance and generalization. The results show that the rainfall thresholds for underground debris flow occurrence can be classified into three risk levels: (i) for p=0.9, the triggering rainfall was 88.6483 mm and the antecedent effective rainfall was 164.9885 mm; (ii) for p=0.7, the triggering rainfall was 78.2563 mm and the antecedent effective rainfall was 145.6473 mm; and (iii) for p=0.5, the triggering rainfall was 71.7336 mm and the antecedent effective rainfall was 133.5076 mm. The research findings provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of debris flow events in mines.

Graphical abstract
Keywords
Underground debris flows
Logistic model
Rainfall threshold
Triggering rainfall
Antecedent effective rainfall
Risk level
Funding
This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 42467022), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 52074137), and the Yunnan Provincial Innovation Team (No. 202105AE160023).
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution, Electronic ISSN: 1875-8568 Print ISSN: 0972-9860, Published by AccScience Publishing
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