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ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE

Projected trends in extreme heat in Senegal from 2020 to 2080

Moussa Sow1 ,  Demba Gaye2*
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1 Department of Environment, Biodiversity and Sustainable Development, Faculty of Social and Environmental Sciences, Sine Saloum El-Hadj Ibrahima Niass University, Kaolack, Senegal
2 Laboratory of Geomatics and Environment, Department of Geography, Faculty of Sciences and Technology, Assane Seck University, Ziguinchor, Senegal
AJWEP, 025150107 https://doi.org/10.36922/AJWEP025150107
Received: 8 April 2025 | Revised: 12 May 2025 | Accepted: 14 May 2025 | Published online: 10 June 2025
© 2025 by the Author(s). This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )
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Abstract

Faced with the challenges that climate change poses to all human societies, adaptation is becoming a necessity for human survival. In this context, it is necessary to study the climatic phenomena that humans face and that are likely to impact various aspects of life. Therefore, this study sought to analyze the trend of heat waves in Senegal using data from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), Canadian Earth System Model Version 5. Three climate scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP]1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5) were used, and the study focused on two future climate normals (2020 – 2050, 2050 – 2080). The study first spatialized the 95th percentile of minimum, mean, and maximum temperatures, then analyzed temperature anomalies with the Lamb index before studying the future trend using the Mann-Kendall test. The results obtained reflect an upward trend for all the variables in this study for the two periods combined but with a different level of significance. This increase is greater for minimum temperatures, with rises of 0.43°C for SS1-2.6, 1.06°C for SSP2-4.5, and 2.18°C for SSP5-8.5. In comparison, maximum temperatures rose by 0.50°C, 1.05°C, and 2.03°C, respectively, between the first and second periods. Mean temperatures followed the same dynamic, with 0.48°C for SSP1-2.6, 1.04°C for SSP2-4.5, and 2.16°C for SSP5-8.5. Given these findings, it is important to analyze the behavior of the other CMIP6 models in assessing heat waves in Senegal.

Graphical abstract
Keywords
Future trends
Heat waves
Mann–Kendall test
Canadian Earth System Model Version 5
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6
Senegal
Funding
None.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no conflicts of interest.
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