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ORIGINAL RESEARCH ARTICLE

Integrated modeling of socioeconomic and hydrological factors for adaptive drought response in the Kowsar Dam basin, Iran

Ali Ghasemi1 ,  Seyed Nematollah Mosavi1* ,  Bahaeddin Najafi1
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1 Department of Agricultural Economics, Marvdasht Branch, Islamic Azad University, Marvdasht, Islamic Republic of Iran
AJWEP, 8381 https://doi.org/10.36922/ajwep.8381
Submitted: 3 January 2025 | Revised: 15 March 2025 | Accepted: 17 March 2025 | Published: 4 April 2025
© 2025 by the Author(s). This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )
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Abstract

The agricultural sector faces major challenges from increasing droughts and declining water resources, especially in arid and semi-arid areas. The present study aims to simulate the effects of drought on socioeconomic, hydrological, and adaptive behavioral parameters at the basin level to identify drought-vulnerable areas and improve agricultural sector management under drought conditions. This study integrates water evaluation and planning, positive mathematical programming, and theory of planned behavior models to analyze hydrological, socioeconomic, and behavioral systems, respectively, under drought scenarios. To implement this integrated model, the Kowsar Dam basin in Iran was selected as the study area. The results showed that droughts significantly reduce crop yields, increase unmet water demand, alter cultivation patterns, and lower farmers’ profits, all driven by reduced rainfall, higher temperatures, and shrinking water resources. Attitudes, norms, and perceived control explained 74.1% of behavioral intention and 58.6% of farmers’ drought responses. Therefore, influencing psychological parameters can help foster the acceptance of drought adaptation strategies at the basin level. In conclusion, this integrated framework serves as a valuable tool for identifying drought-vulnerable areas and designing effective policies and interventions for drought management.

Keywords
Drought modelling
Drought-vulnerable regions
Integrated modelling
Climate resilience
Behavioral adaptation
Funding
None.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing interests.
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Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution, Electronic ISSN: 1875-8568 Print ISSN: 0972-9860, Published by AccScience Publishing
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