AccScience Publishing / AJWEP / Volume 21 / Issue 4 / DOI: 10.3233/AJW240048
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Long-Term Seasonal and Annual Rainfall Trend Analysis of Giridih District, Jharkhand, India

Bashabi Gupta, Seema Aggarwal1 * Milu Maria Jose2
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1 Department of Computer Science, Miranda House, University of Delhi, Delhi, India
2 North East Regional Research and Resource Centre, Miranda House, University of Delhi, Delhi, India
AJWEP 2024, 21(4), 73–81; https://doi.org/10.3233/AJW240048
Submitted: 13 March 2024 | Revised: 30 April 2024 | Accepted: 30 April 2024 | Published: 25 July 2024
© 2024 by the Author(s). This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution -Noncommercial 4.0 International License (CC-by the license) ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ )
Abstract

District Giridih is primarily rain dependent on its 95 per cent net cultivable land under summer-monsoon crops. It is classified as a mono-cropping area as it lacks irrigation facilities, essential for winter crops. In the last few years, the district experienced water stress due to the shortage of monsoon rainfall. We study long term seasonal and annual rainfall trend analyses for the Giridih district of Jharkhand in India using linear regression modelling. The last 100 years of data were taken for the study and were divided into two-time phases of 50 years each to analyse the changing pattern of rainfall trends. We found a decreasing trend in monsoon rainfall from 1 mm y-1 to 3 mm y-1 between the initial (1921-1971) and final (1972-2021) phase of the study period. Similarly, the return period of droughts (rainfall deficit years) has also reduced from 11 years to 5 years. The study has shown that the rainfall pattern has changed, with the winter months showing a decrease and the pre-monsoon months an increase in their relative contributions to the annual rainfalls. The study may help in the formulation of water resource conservation-oriented decision-making to cope-up with the rainfall uncertainties and meet the future water demand.

Keywords
Giridih
climate change
trend analysis
Linear Regression Modelling
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Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution, Electronic ISSN: 1875-8568 Print ISSN: 0972-9860, Published by AccScience Publishing