AccScience Publishing / AJWEP / Volume 18 / Issue 3 / DOI: 10.3233/AJW210023
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Sensitivity Analysis of Dam Breach Parameters for Variation Capacity Earthen Dams

Chau Kim Tran1
Show Less
1 Thuyloi University, 175 Tay Son, Dong Da, Ha Noi, Vietnam
AJWEP 2021, 18(3), 1–9; https://doi.org/10.3233/AJW210023
Submitted: 2 March 2021 | Revised: 1 May 2021 | Accepted: 1 May 2021 | Published: 29 July 2021
© 2021 by the Author(s). This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution -Noncommercial 4.0 International License (CC-by the license) ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ )
Abstract

Sensitivity analysis is an effective tool to determine the robustness of an assessment by examining the extent to which the results are affected by changes in input. In this study, the FAST method was applied to analyse the sensitivity to the earth dam failure process. Four (04) input variables were selected including breach development time, breach width, side slope, and initial breach position. The effects of these parameters on the two (02) outputs i.e., the maximum outflow, and rising time were assessed. The study was applied to 08 reservoirs with different capacities. The sensitivity analysis showed that the development time and initial breach location dominantly affect these outputs. Additionally, development time is the most important factor in rising time. The lateral slope has an insignificant effect on outputs. The effect of breach width can be neglected to rising time, however, its influence on maximum outflow is significant. The results of this study show the role of input variables in the flow hydrograph due to dam failure. Through this research, the workload of the breach parameter analysis process can be substantially reduced.

Keywords
Dam breach
sensitivity analysis
FAST
breach development time
breach width
side slope
initial breach position
Conflict of interest
The authors declare they have no competing interests.
References

ANCOLD (2012). Guidelines on the Consequence Categories  for Dams. Australian National Committee on Large Dams  Inc.

Chen, S.S., Qi, M.Z. and Z.S. Guang (2019). Numerical  modeling of earthen dam breach due to piping failure.  Water Science and Engineering, 12(3): 169-178. https:// doi.org/10.1016/j.wse.2019.08.001.

Cukier, R.I., Levine, H.B. and K.E. Shuler (1978). Nonlinear  sensitivity analysis of multiparameter model systems.  Journal of Computational Physics, 26(1): 1-42.

FEMA (2013). Federal Guidelines for Inundation Mapping  of Flood Risk Associated with Dam Incidents and  Failures. 1e, Document FEMA P-946, Federal Emergency  Management Agency, US Department of Homeland  Security, USA.

Froehlich, D.C. (1995a). Peak outflow from breached  embankment dam. Journal of Water Resources Planning  and Management, 121: 90-97.

Froehlich, D.C. (1995b). Embankment dam breach parameters  revisited. In: Water Resources Engineering, Proceedings  of the 1995 ASCE Conference on Water Resources  Engineering, San Antonio, Texas, , 887-891.

Froehlich, D.C. (2008). Embankment dam breach  parameters and their uncertainties. Journal of Hydraulic  Engineering,134(12): 1708-1721.

Hall, J.W., Boyce, S.A., Wang, Y., Dawson, R.J., Tarantola,  S. and A. Saltelli (2009). Sensitivity analysis for hydraulic  models. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering, 135(11):  959-969. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HY.1943- 7900.0000098

MacDonald, T.C. and J. Langridge-Monopolis (1984).  Breaching characteristics of dam Failures. Journal of  Hydraulic Engineering, 110(5): 567-586.

Morris, M.D. (1991). Factorial sampling plans for preliminary  computational experiments. Technometrics, 33(2): 161- 174.

Norton, J. (2015). An introduction to sensitivity assessment  of simulation models. Environmental Modelling and  Software, 69: 166-174. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j. envsoft.2015.03.020

Pa, P. and S. Shwe (2020). Modeling approach for earthen  dam breach analysis in North Yamar Dam, Myanmar.  American Scientific Research Journal for Engineering,  Technology, and Sciences, 69(1): 59-72.

Pianosi, F., Beven, K., Freer, J., Hall, J.W., Rougier, J.,  Stephenson, D.B. and T. Wagener (2016). Sensitivity  Analysis of Environmental Models: A Systematic Review  with Practical Workflow. Environmental Modelling  and Software, 79: 214-232. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j. envsoft.2016.02.008.

Ren, J., Wenbing Z. and Y. Jie (2019). Morris sensitivity  analysis for hydrothermal coupling parameters of  embankment dam: A case study. Mathematical Problems in  Engineering, 2019. https://doi.org/10.1155/2019/2196578

Saltelli, A. (2002). Sensitivity analysis for importance  assessment. Risk Analysis, 22(3): 579-590.

Saltelli, A. (2008). Global sensitivity analysis. The Primer.  John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Scharffenberg, W. (2016). Hydrologic Modeling System  HEC-HMS User’s Manual. U.S. Army Corps of Engineers  - Hydrologic Engineering Center. http://www.hec.usace. army.mil/software/hec-hms/documentation/HEC-HMS_ Users_Manual_4.0.pdf.

Shih, M., Charles T. and H. James (2018). Uncertainty  analysis of dam breach flooding extents using FEMA  DSS-WISE lite. In: ASDSO Dam Safety 2018 Conference.

Von Thun, J.L. and D.R. Gillette (1990). Guidance on Breach  Parameters. U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of  Reclamation, Denver, Colorado, March 13, 1990, 17 p.

Wahl, T.L. (2004). Uncertainty of predictions of embankment  dam breach parameters. Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,  130(5): 389-397.

Wahl, T.L. (2010). Dam breach modeling – An overview of  analysis methods. Joint Federal Interagency Conference  on Sedimentation and Hydrologic Modeling 

Wahl, T.L. (1998). Prediction of Embankment Dam Breach  Parameters. DSO-98-004, Dam Safety Research Report,  U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation,  Denver, Colorado, July 1998.

Xu, Y. and L.M. Zhang (2009). Breaching parameters for  earth and rockfill dams. ASCE Journal of Geotechnical  and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 135(12): 1957-1970.

Share
Back to top
Asian Journal of Water, Environment and Pollution, Electronic ISSN: 1875-8568 Print ISSN: 0972-9860, Published by AccScience Publishing