AccScience Publishing / IJPS / Volume 7 / Issue 1 / DOI: 10.18063/ijps.v7i1.1310
Cite this article
11
Download
47
Citations
385
Views
Journal Browser
Volume | Year
Issue
Search
News and Announcements
View All
RESEARCH ARTICLE

Application of a breakpoint model to population growth in Türkiye

Goran Miladinov1*
Show Less
1 Independent Researcher, Republic of Macedonia
IJPS 2021 , 7(1), 23–40; https://doi.org/10.18063/ijps.v7i1.1310
© Invalid date by the Authors. Licensee AccScience Publishing, Singapore. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution -Noncommercial 4.0 International License (CC BY-NC 4.0) ( https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/ )
Abstract

Using data from the Macrotrends database, this paper investigated the change and differences in population growth (POPG) as a result of the impact of its key determinants employing a breakpoint model. A regression analysis confirms the presence of persistent differences in the POPG in Türkiye over the period 1965 – 2021. Using the Bai-Perron sequential breakpoint method, four statistically significant breaks at 1976, 1984, 2004, and 2013 and consequently to that five regimes were ascertained. The results clearly show a worthy of attention difference in the mean of the crude death rate, total fertility rate, as well as net migration rate within all of these five regimes. Furthermore, the results reveal clear evidence that the POPG is characterized with statistically different trends compared to the period prior and after the years of breaks and different regimes. This indicates that circumstances affecting the mortality, migrations, and fertility in terms of the number of live births and deaths as well as migration trends in the country before and after these indicated years in Türkiye have been largely influenced by the different dynamics of the socioeconomic conditions and different contexts in Turkish society.

Keywords
Population growth rate
Total fertility rate
Crude mortality rate
Net rate of migration
Breakpoint model
Türkiye
References
[1]

Ahmad M and Khan RE. (2018). Does demographic transition with human capital dynamics matter for economic growth? A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to GMM. Social Indicators Research, 142(2):753-772. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11205-018-1928-x

[2]

Alper E. (2010). Reconsidering social movements in Turkey: The case of the 1968-71 protest cycle. New Perspectives on Turkey, 43(43):63-96. https://doi.org/10.1017/S089663460000577X

[3]

Antoshin S, Berg A, and Souto MR. (2008). Testing for Structural Breaks in Small Samples, IMF Working Papers, No. (075), A001. Available from: https://www.elibrary.imf.org/view/journals/001/2008/075/article-A001-en.xml [Last accessed on 2022 Mar 21].

[4]

Avdeev A, Eremenko T, Festy P, et al. (2011). Populations and demographic trends of European countries, 1980-2010. Population, 66(1):9-133. https://doi.org/10.3917/popu.1101.0009

[5]

Aykut MA. (2013). Growth and Demography in Turkey: Economic History vs. Pro-Natalist Rhetoric. Working Paper No. 47275, MPRA. Available from: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/47275/1/MPRA_paper_47275.pdf. [Last accessed on 2022 Apr 22].

[6]

Bai J. (1997). Estimating multiple breaks one at a time. Econometric Theory, 13:315-352. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0266466600005831

[7]

Bai J and Perron P. (1998). Estimating and testing linear models with multiple structural changes. Econometrica, 66:47-78. https://doi. org/10.2307/2998540

[8]

Bai J and Perron P. (2003). Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 6:72-78. https://doi.org/10.1002/jae.659

[9]

Bakar C, Oymak S, and Maral I. (2017). Turkey’s Epidemiological and demographic transitions: 1931-2013. Balkan Medical Journal, 34(4):323-334. https://doi.org/10.4274/balkanmedj.2016.0960

[10]

Baran T. (1971). Development of the Turkish Economy: An Experience in Planning. Discussion Papers, No. 120. Available from: https://elischolar.library.yale.edu/egcenter-discussion-paper-series/120/ [Last acessed on 2022 May 22].

[11]

Bongaarts J and Bulatao AR. (1999). Completing the demographic transition. Population and Development Review, 25:515-529.

[12]

Burak B. (2011). Turkish political culture and civil society: An unsettling coupling? Alternatives Turkish Journal of International Relations, 10(1):59-71.

[13]

Caarls K and de Valk HAG. (2018). Regional diffusion of divorce in Turkey. European Journal of Population, 34:609-636. https://doi. org/10.1007/s10680-017-9441-5

[14]

Canpolat-Bese S, Ucar B, and Karakaya-Dogu M. (2013). Subnational Population Projections for Turkey, 2013-2023. Working Paper, No. 14.2. Joint Eurostat/UNECE Work Session on Demographic Projections Organized in Cooperation with Istat, 29-31 Oct 2013, Rome, Italy.

[15]

Czech K. (2016). Problems of world agriculture. Scientific Journal Warsaw University of Life Sciences SGGW, 16(4):92-98.

[16]

Doğan ÖS. (2015). Growth of population and population policies implemented in Turkey between 1965 and 2014. International Journal of Science and Research, 4(4):1907-1911.

[17]

Dumont GF. (2011). Is Turkey split in two? In: Population and Avenir. Vol. 703. Association Population et Avenir. p.3. https://doi. org/10.3917/popav.703.0003

[18]

Durmus V. (2022). Trends in life expectancy and mortality rates in Turkey as Compared to organization for economic co-operation and development countries: An analysis of vital statistics data. International Archives of Health Sciences, 9(1):64-69. https:/doi. org/10.4103/iahs.iahs_227_21

[19]

Ediev MD and Yüceşahin MM. (2016). Contribution of migration to replacement of population in Turkey. Migration Letters, 13:377- 392. https://doi.org/10.33182/ml.v13i3.290

[20]

Ergöçmen B and Özdemir E. (2005). Introduction: Demographic structure of Turkey. In: Proceedings: Social Situation Observatory Demography Monitor. Hague, The Netherlands: NIDI.

[21]

Espenshade Т, Olgiati A, and Levin S. (2011). On nonstable and stable population momentum. Demography, 48(4):1581-1599. https:// doi 10.1007/s13524-011-0063-y

[22]

Gönder H. (2017). An overlook over the declining fertility rate in Turkey. OPUS Uluslararası Toplum Araştırmaları Dergisi, 7(7):193-204.

[23]

Horiuchi S and Preston HP. (1988). Age-specific growth rates: The legacy of past population dynamics. Demography, 25(3):429-441. https://doi.org/10.2307/2061542

[24]

Horiuchi S. (1995). The cohort approach to population growth: A retrospective decomposition of growth rates for Sweden. Population Studies, 49(1):147-163. https://doi.org/10.1080/0032472031000148296

[25]

IHS Global Inc. (2017). EViews 10 User’s Guide II. Irvine, CA: IHS Global Inc.

[26]

Kilic H and Biffi G. (2021). Turkish migration policy from the 1960s until today: What national development plans tell us. Journal of International Migration and Integration, 22(4):1-27. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12134-021-00912-3

[27]

Kröhnert S. (2010). Demographic Development in Turkey.Working Paper, September 2010. Berlin: The Berlin Institute for Population and Development.

[28]

Lee R. (2011). The outlook for population growth. Science, 333(6042):569-573. https://doi:10.1126/science.1208859

[29]

Lee R. (2015). Becker and the demographic transition. Journal of Demographic Economics, 81:67-74. https://doi.org.10.1017/ dem.2014.9

[30]

Lesthaeghe R. (2011). The second demographic transition: A conceptual map for the understanding of late modern demographic developments in fertility and family formation. Historical Social Research, 36(2):179-218. https://doi.org/10.12759/ hsr.36.2011.2.179-218

[31]

Lesthaeghe R. (2014). The second demographic transition: A concise overview of its development. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(51):18112-18115. https://doi.org.10.1073/pnas.1420441111

[32]

Macrotrends LL. (2022). Global Metrics: Retrieved Data for Population Growth Rate, Fertility Rate, Death Rate and the net Migration Rate for Turkey 1965-2021. Available from: https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/topic-overview [Last accessed on 2022 Mar 18].

[33]

Mihai M. (2009). Growth and Economic Crises in Turkey: Leaving behind a Turbulent Past? Economic Papers, No. 386 October 2009, Economic and Financial affairs, European Commission, Brussels. https://doi.org.10.2765/2888

[34]

Murat A. (2005). Political economic analysis of Turkish economy: Structural problems and the role of the state. Eskişehir Osmangazi Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 6(2):15-27.

[35]

OECD. (2011). Life Expectancy at Birth. In: Health at a Glance 2011: OECD Indicators. Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi. org/10.1787/health_glance-2011-4-en

[36]

Önel G. (2005). Testing for multiple structural breaks: An application of Bai-Perron test to the nominal interest rates and inflation in Turkey. Dokuz Eylul Universitesi Iktisadi ve Idari Bilimler Dergisi, 20(2):81-93.

[37]

Özen İ. (2018). Early riser, late bloomer: Contextualizing Turkish health achievements in the last 50 years vis-à-vis China and the global picture of development. New Perspectives on Turkey, 58:35-92. https://doi.org.10.1017/npt.2018.6

[38]

Pekesen B. (2014). Turkey in the 1960s: Social Change and Political Radicalization. H-Soz-Kult, 09.05.2014. Avaialble from: https:// www.hsozkult.de/event/id/event-74834 [Last accessed on 2022 May 22].

[39]

Phoong SW, Phoong SY, and Phoong KH. (2020). Analysis of structural changes in financial datasets using the breakpoint test and the markov switching model. Symmetry, 12(3):401. https://doi.org.10.3390/sym12030401

[40]

Preston HS, Heuveline P, and Guillot M. (2001). Demography, Measuring and Modeling Population Processes. Oxford: Blackwell Publishers.

[41]

Schoen R. (2018). The time to decline: Tracing a cohort’s descendants in below replacement populations. Genus, 74:1. https://doi. org.10.1186/s41118-018-0026-x

[42]

Seçkin N. (2009). Determinants of Infant Mortality in Turkey [M.S. Master of Science]. Middle East Technical University. Available from: https://www.etd.lib.metu.edu.tr/upload/12611069/index.pdf [Last accessed on 2022 May 22].

[43]

Weinstein J and Pillai KV. (2016). Demography, the Science of Population. 2nd ed. London: Rowman and Littlefield.

[44]

Willekens F. (2015). Demographic transitions in europe and the world. In: K. Matthijs, K. Neels, C. Timmerman, J. Haers and S. Mels (eds.). Population Change in Europe, the Middle-East and North Africa Beyond the Demographic Divide. London, New York: Routledge,Taylor and Francis Group, p.13-44.

[45]

World Bank. (2022a). The World Bank Indicators, Population Growth (Annual Percent %) -Turkey. Washington, DC: World Bank. Available from: https://www.data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?locations=TR [Last accessed on 2022 Mar 29].

[46]

World Bank. (2022b). The World Bank Indicators, Life Expectancy at Birth, Total (Years)-Turkey. Washington, DC: World Bank. Available from: https://www.data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.DYN.LE00.IN?locations=TR [Last accessed on 2022 Apr 03].

[47]

Yüceşahin MM, Adalı T, and Türkyılmaz AS. (2016). Population policies in Turkey and demographic changes on a social map. Border Crossing, 6:240-266. https://doi.org/10.33182/bc.v6i2.493

[48]

Yüksel Y. (2015). In search for a pronatalist population policy for Turkey. Gaziantep University Journal of Social Sciences, 14(1):19- 38. https://doi.org/10.21547/jss.256885

[49]

Zarei A, Ariff M, Hook LS, et al. (2015). Identifying multiple structural breaks in exchange rate series in a finance research. Pertanika Journal of Social Sciences and Humanities, 23:155-166.

Share
Back to top
International Journal of Population Studies, Electronic ISSN: 2424-8606 Print ISSN: 2424-8150, Published by AccScience Publishing